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Amazon UK
Amazon US Some extracts from the book
The
incoming path of the trajectory over approximately the last second of its
flight is shown in Figure 33. It can be seen that the Köfels object flew
almost perfectly parallel with and slightly to the east of the ridge ending
in Gamskogel. Figure 34 (left) shows the corresponding profile of the
terrain over the last 15 km of flight and it is clear the object interacted
with Gamskogel clipping the ridge to give a 2 kilometre long cut with a 6
degree slope, matching the incoming trajectory. |

Figure 38: Felderkogel
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Other impact sites are known to have associated
secondary impacts from fragments that have broken off during the atmosphere
flight. These secondary impact sites form in an ellipical pattern with the
primary impact at the furthest point and the smallest fragments at the other
end, the gradation due to the fact that smaller objects will be more
influenced by aerodynamic drag [24].
Figure 38 shows a suggestive feature on the side of Felderkogel on the
opposite side of the valley from Gamskogel (Figure 33). It has the form of a
classic impact crater and it is in a position that is consistent with an
object on a parallel path to the main object. The feature is around 250 m in
diameter which would correspond to an object a few tens of metres in
diameter and in itself would have been a bigger impact event than the 1908
Tunguska impact.
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Figure 25: Ground Track of Köfels Object |
.... Thus we know the path across the
background stars and the approximate observers azimuth to the point of
closest approach. This ties down the flight path angle and azimuth quite
well to approximately -6º (±0.5º) flight path angle and approach to Köfels
from an azimuth of 132º (±0.5º). These two parameters are linked when trying
to maintain a reasonable fit to the path through Enif and Altair, but the
point of closest approach is largely determined by the azimuth. Assuming the
trajectory given by case 9 the azimuth of closest approach is 258.2°, about
39% of the separation from Enif to Altair. This is a very good fit with
K8538. The ground track of Case 9 is shown in Figure 25.
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This image by Amanda Pollard visualises the
'shooting star' which might be associated with subsequent events such as the
destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah. |
The Preface to A Sumerian Observation of the Kofels' Impact Event
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For several years we have been conducting research into the possibility of a
major Near Earth Object impact in the Early Bronze Age. While this was not in
itself an original hypothesis, our interest was in exploring whether Köfels in
Austria could have been the site for such an event which, to the best of our
knowledge, was a conjecture that had not been considered before. When we started
the project this premise was highly speculative and the work was done for our
own intellectual stimulation rather than in any expectation of reaching any
conclusive, let alone publishable, results. However the tone of the project
changed when our attention was drawn to tablet K8538 (commonly called the “Planisphere”),
a cuneiform text in the British Museum. There has never been a comprehensive and
consistent translation of this unique tablet, but it had several aspects that
led us to the conclusion that it might relate to a Near Earth Object impact and
on the basis of this impression we undertook to examine it in detail.
We had two advantages over previous researchers who have tackled K8538. The
first advantage was that we had a clear context regarding what the tablet might
be about. Context is always important when dealing with Sumerian cuneiform due
to the high level of ambiguity compared with modern written languages, but it is
especially important in the case of this tablet where its purpose seems to have
been more as an “aide memoire” to the writer than a means of communication with
other people.
It is therefore important to know that a Near Earth Object impact is an event
that might have been observed. It also helps to have some experience of
astronomy and understand the sort of factors that affect what could be seen and
what would be of interest to an observer. We are certain that modern astronomers
who follow the detail of the tablet will feel an empathy with a skilled and
objective brother astronomer - even after 5000 years. Without this background
knowledge understanding K8538 would be very difficult.
The second advantage we had was new software tools that were not available to
any previous researchers. The programs used for trajectory modelling were
non-commercial; they were modified versions of programs that had been used on a
previous project. The other programs, used to model the position of stars and
planets, were widely available commercial packages. When these programs were
combined we could directly compare the tablet’s pictures to the actual sky.
Without this ability to “see again” what the Sumerian astronomer saw, we believe
understanding the tablet would be impossible and we believe this was the key
problem that has prevented previous researchers fully understanding K8538.
As a result of this examination we believe our original speculation regarding
the tablet was correct, that is the tablet is an astronomer’s contemporary
record of a kilometre class Aten asteroid as it approached Earth to impact at
Köfels in Austria. What we were completely unprepared for was the objectivity
and accuracy of the observation, which gives an incredibly rich insight into the
event it describes. Clearly these conclusions merited publication; hence this
monograph.
We decided to report our results in a monograph for two reasons. The first
reason is that the arguments are complex. There are three major interlocking
areas, the tablet itself, the Köfels site, and the heliocentric orbit of the
object. Each of these areas is complex in its own right, yet each is internally
consistent. Then the stories they each tell individually are completely (and
very precisely) consistent with each other. Thus we have jigsaws that are
themselves pieces within an overall jigsaw and the proof lies in that the end
result is such a clear unified picture. An argument this complex cannot be fully
outlined within the word constraints of a journal paper whereas in a monograph
we can both present the full arguments, and cover some of the secondary
material, needed to establish the veracity of our contentions.
The second reason for using a monograph to report this work is that it is highly
multidisciplinary in nature and this creates problems for a conventional journal
paper. Academic journals are focused on specific subject areas with specialist
editorial boards, and specialist referees to review the papers submitted. Not
surprisingly, editors and referees have difficultly handling papers that have
substantial content outside the journal’s field and yet which form an essential
part of the argument. This problem then extends to the readership of a journal,
which is also restricted to specialists in one subject rather than the totality
of people who would have an interest in the work. A book enables us to engage
all the potentially interested communities on an equal basis, even if we have
lost the advantages of peer review.
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